BigTips Betting News
Sonny D NFL AFC Bet Recommendations
AFC East
The Patriots start clear favourites here and with good reason! The return of Brady and the addition of some key veterans (Fred Taylor, Joey Galloway, Shawn Springs to name a few) sees them start the season as Superbowl, let alone division, favourites in the bookies eyes. But is 1-4 good value to win this division? Personally, I’d suggest not. Brady’s injury last year showed how tenuous their grip on this division can be if a key injury strikes again. Furthermore, the other 3 teams in the division continue to be much improved from the days the Pats used to win the division without even breaking sweat.
Miami (who don’t forget are current division champs) wont surrender their crown easily and figure to be solid and well drilled under the watchful eyes of legend Bill Parcels and 2nd year coach Tony Sporano (who sounds like he’d pop a cap in yo’ ass if you made a silly mistake). The Jets will be hoping that bringing Baltimore’s Defensive Co-ordinator (Rex Ryan) and key members of their defensive personnel (Bart Scott / Jim Leonard) will see them replicate the fine defensive play of Baltimore. This isn’t wholly unrealistic as their own defence was already strong. However, for all the confidence with the new defence, there has to be equal question marks for the offence, not least a rookie QB with…err….no-one to throw to. Buffalo do have people to throw to, not least new arrival Terrell Owens, whose talent is only outsized by his mouth and ego, but do they have anyone on the offensive line to block for promising young QB Trent Edwards to have time to throw the ball to TO?
When the dust settles on this division, expect The Patriots to have won it, but in these uncertain economic times don’t be risking your mortgage on it (unless you’re already in negative equity and have nothing to lose :-) )
Prediction: New England 11-5 Miami 9-7 New York 8-8 Buffalo 8-8
AFC South
At 13-8, The Colts seem good value in my opinion for a bet here. The reason for the generous price and return for your investment here is two fold: Firstly the uncertainty over how The Colts will respond to losing key players (Harrison / Rhodes) and the state of flux within the coaching ranks (Dungy & Meeks gone, Mudd & Moore gone or reduced roles). Secondly, the competition within the division is very strong, with all 3 teams likely to compete and push The Colts hard. It may well be tight and go down to the wire, but with Manning on the team, if he and his team mates can stay healthier than in’ 08, they should prevail, eventually – just expect a few grey hairs and nails bitten down to your elbow.
Prediction: Indianapolis 12-4 Tennessee 11-5 Houston 10-6 Jacksonville 8-8
AFC North
Like The Patriots in he East, The Steelers start clear favourites here and with justified reason (they are Superbowl champs for a start). But like The Patriots, I don’t consider 1-2 to be great value. Their loss of reliable back-up QB (Byron Leftwich) wasn’t high profile, but could end up coming back to bite them in the bum. His loss leaves The Steelers preying that starting QB (Ben Rothilsberger) can last the whole season without missing any key time / games. It doesn’t bode well that Big Ben plays behind a shaky offensive line, has a reputation for holding on to the ball too long and taking too many sacks and always seems to have more niggles and ailments than he does body parts.
Cincinnati and especially Cleveland do not figure to put up much opposition. But if Big Ben misses any time, it could leave the door open for Baltimore. The Ravens may not have the extra quality required to compete with the elite of this league and make a legitimate push for the Superbowl, but they have an effective style for grinding out regular season wins against the NFL’s lesser or average teams and shouldn’t be discarded here.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 11/5 Baltimore 10/6 Cincinnati 7/9 Cleveland 3/13
AFC West
Expect San Diego to win this in a canter. They will be much improved on last year with key players returning to full health (Merriman / Tomlinson). The rest of the division is awful, with Denver, normally their only genuine competition, going into meltdown in the off-season and losing their best player (Jay Cutler) who refused to play for the new coach and demanded a trade. 4-11 isn’t the best price, but it’s a sure fire winner so get your car, mortgage and kids’ college fund on this one – you can move in with me if it goes wrong !!!
Prediction: San Diego 11/5 Denver 6/10 Kansas City 5/11 Oakland 3-13
Posted: Wednesday, September 9th, 2009 @ 04:09 pm by Bigtips admin
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