BigTips Betting News
NFL Preview 2009 - Week 8
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Week 8 in the NFL has provided me with the dilemna no gambler wishes to face... That is, to bet with your head before your heart. Having had a substantial bet on Green Bay to win the NFC, I was hoping to sit down in front of the telly this week with a slab of cheese on my head cheering on the Packers. Green Bay currently lie in second place in the NFC North 1.5 games behind the Vikings, if they could defeat the Vikes this week then their credentials would soar and they would look like very real contenders to represent the NFC in this years Superbowl.. But my problem lies in the fact that I think Minnesota are very over priced to win this game. anybody who saw the Week 4 match up between the sides, which Minnesota won 30-23, will realise that the scoreline slightly flattered the Pack. Green Bay scored TD's on a strip fumble off Adrian Petersen and a TD late in the fourth quarter when the game was all but beyond them. The Packers have responded well after losing that game, winning both games they have played since at a canter, but their achilles heal, their offensive line has not been tested in either of those games against two of the leagues weaker teams, Cleveland and Detroit. Minnesota's 'D' will ask plenty more questions of the Packer offensive line, the Vikings had Aaron Rodgers on his back 8 times in the first encounter (including once for a safety). Brett Favre who will be making an emotional return to Lambeau Field where he spent 16 years of his career, had a very productive game in Minnesota as the Packers defense keyed in on stopping the best running back in the league, Adrian Petersen. Favre though did prove last week against the World Champion Steelers that he is more than capable of making the mistakes in big games that will ultimately stop this talented team from winning the Superbowl.
When I priced this up I had Minnesota as slight favourites for the game, so the 8/5 available at Paddy Power and Ladbrokes looks way too big.. I just wish the bookmakers had priced it as 10/11 your pick so I didn't have to deal with this headache!..
Pick 1: Minnesota 8/5 (Paddy Power or Ladbrokes )
Denver @ Baltimore
Seven weeks into the season and Denver is still undefeated, I for one have gotta say that I am more than a little surprised. I hold my hands up and admit the have played alot better than I expected for this team that looked in diarray in the pre season, but at the same time I feel they can consider themselves more than a shade fortunate not to have lost a game so far.. But for a miracle play in week one Cincy would have beaten them, New England and Dallas both will be kicking themselves for at least not taking their games into overtime and San Diego were killing the Broncos before giving up two kick returns for TD's in the 2nd quarter of their Monday night match up.
On the flip side of the coin we have Baltimore who are 3-3, but who could have more than easily won each of the games they have lost.. all of whom were quality opponents.
I give alot of credit to Denver's success to Defensive Coordinator, Mike Nolan, who has been making some fantasic adjustments at half time to keep opposing offenses in check.. So for that reason I'm gonna tip Baltimore HT/FT, because if they are not leading at half time they are unlikely to win the game.
Pick 2: Baltimore HT/FT 6/5 (Bet365)
St Louis @ Detroit
Coming off a bye week, which is always handy to teams in the NFL, especially when it gives your starting QB an extra week to recover from injury, Detroit look more than capable of taking care of St Louis at home. The Lions have shown definite signs of improvement this season and have not embarassed themselves against very decent opposition Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Chicago & Minnesota. St Louis on the other hand have looked completely inept, already having been shut out on two occasions against Seattle & San Francisco, who themselves are no world beaters.
No prices issued for this match yet as their is still a question mark as to who will start QB for Detroit. If Matthew Stafford is confirmed as the starter as I expect, then the handicap is likely to be Detroit -3.5pts. In which case I would advise a bet.
Posted: Friday, October 30th, 2009 @ 00:10 am by Bigtips admin
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