BigTips Betting News
King George Preview
For those perennial value seekers who take a view in the King George, Kauto Star is becoming a bit of a pain. Three times has the Kempton King won the race, in two of those he ploughed through the middle of the final fence like a novice point to pointer. The third time he climbed over it.
When Sam Thomas was ejected at the penultimate fence in last year’s Betfair Chase, many thought that was the end of an era. Most of us would have opposed the King in last month’s slog round heavy ground at Haydock. In fact, most of us would have taken on the King even after the race had finished. But he still won (apparently) and landed the odds. We are yet to see the evidence that he got up, but we’ll take the judge’s word for it.
And in the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup he was firmly put in his place by stablemate Denman. Surely, again, that was the end of it. But when Kauto gets to Kempton on Boxing Day he will be looking to win the race for the 4th consecutive year. Something no other horse has ever achieved, not even Arkle. Not even Desert Orchid. Nor Best mate.
A year older, and after a gruesome battle with Imperial Commander, most of us would see Ladbrokes odds of 1/2 look for value elsewhere. As we do every year.
Imperial Commander is the obvious threat. Beaten by the absolute minimum at Haydock, and a seemingly progressive horse, he fully justifies the odds of 6/1. But Haydock is not Kempton, and Kauto did not look fully wound up for the Betfair Chase, whilst Imperial Commander goes very well fresh. So he may have been flattered by that effort.
Madison Du Berlais is difficult to assess. After a number of impressive victories the horse warrants respect, but appalling efforts in The Gold Cup and The Betfair Chase are worrying. So we are happy to pass on the 9/1 with William Hill.
Next in the betting at 14/1 with Paddy Power is Deep Purple, who got the better of Ollie Magern and Tamarinbleu in another slog at Wetherby in The Charlie Hall. He was then, surprisingly, sent off the outsider of the field in The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon and won well. If he was trained by Nicholls he would be a 7/1 shot and warrants respect. As does Tartak, at 50/1, whose connections were convinced the horse would have beaten Deep Purple at Huntingdon without making a costly error late on.
Old timers Our Vic, Ollie Magern and Racing Demon will take their place, but all 3 look in decline and are difficult to fancy. If it were not for Jonjo O’Neill’s ongoing malaise then Alberta’s Run, last year’s runner up, may warrant an interest. But it’s difficult to understand how the horse can overturn the huge deficit in his 2nd place finish in 2008.
And that leaves Barber’s Shop. Still unexposed, the Queen’s horse didn’t stay in The Hennessy but still ran respectably. An unknown quantity just waiting for the right course and distance. BigTips advised Barber’s Shop last week at 12/1 each way without Kauto Star. 8/1 is still available. Which is still fair value.
The conclusion. Taking on the Kempton King can be bad for your bank balance, we’ll get involved, but without the favourite. Definitely without the favourite!
Posted: Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009 @ 00:12 am by DJ Taylor
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