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NFL Week 17 preview
Week 17
Betting in the final week of the regular season in the NFL is reminiscent to betting in the Pre Season matches.... Not advisable!!
Only two match ups this weekend feature a game where both teams need to win, Pittsburgh @ Miami and Philadelphia @ Dallas. Having backed Dallas last weekend to win the NFC East division at 13/8 their is no need to get involved in their match with Philly, and the other match looks best left alone as both teams have pretty unrealistic chances of making the post season and how much their hearts will really be in it is questionable.
So my advice for this week, is sometimes the advice which is hardest to follow, that is to keep your money in your and wait for the betting bonaza of the weeks to follow in the play offs.
Outrights
Looking at the Superbowl outright, it looks wide open to me. The front three in the betting, Indianapolis, New Orleans and San Diego all look to have their weaknesses and their prices, which all look a little short, help inflate the prices of the other teams. Pre Season I tipped Green Bay to win the NFC, and I feel they have a pretty good shot, Green Bay is the only team in the NFL who's offense and defense both rank in the top 5 statistically, the improved 'O' line still concerns me a bit but Aaron Rodgers is that good when he does stay on his feet that the Packers will definately go close to representing a mediocre NFC in the Superbowl. The other side that interests me in the NFC is Minnesota, as big as 14/1 with Bet365 and Betfred to win the Superbowl, that price could look awfully big after this weekend if the faltering Vikes can lock up the no.2 seed in the NFC.They will do this if Philadelphia loses in Dallas and they themselves beat the Giants. Even though Minnesota have appeared to have struggled of late they are still one of the most balanced sides to be in the post season this year and have comprehensively disposed of Green Bay on two occasions.
In the AFC, my Superbowl pre season tip the Houston Texans look like they are just gonna miss out on the play offs.. And call me biased but I think they are the best side who will not to be at the post season party. Remember this side should probably have beaten Indianapolis again twice this year, and there are numerous other hard luck stories along the way. I blame head coach Gary Kubiak who hasn't been gutsy enough when Houston has had teams on the ropes, and ultimately I think Kubiak will lose his job after the season is over. But here's hoping for a minor miracle and the Texans get in.
So if I'm counting out the two hot pots in the AFC who else does that leave?.. New England, with their wealth of recent play off experience, might come good, but on what they've achieved this year they look far too short.. The Jets, if they get in will be the luckiest team to get in in recent history to be in the play offs after the Colts lay down for them last week and Cincinatti will probably do the same this week.. So that leaves the AFC North's entries, the Baltimore Ravens (35/1 Bet365), who are in if they beat Oakland this weekend, and the AFC North champions the Cincinnati Bengals (40/1 Betfred), remember the AFC North accounted for both teams in last seasons AFC championship game. The Ravens have probably been the better side in at least 5 of their 7 losses and if they can cut out the stupid penalties that have been costing them dear then this will be a team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Cincinnati's achilles heel this year has been their passing game, but that wouldn't worry me about the Bengals, Carson Palmer is still one of the premier passers in the league given the chance to pass, so their only weakness for me is the coaching ability of Head Coach Marvin Lewis, but 40/1 looks good.
Don't forget Arizona were the complete outsiders going into last years play offs and came within one play of going to overtime in the Superbowl final, so my advice would be to get with one of the fancy priced teams to cheer on through January.
Posted: Sunday, January 3rd, 2010 @ 04:01 pm by Big Deal
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