BigTips Betting News
NFL Wildcard Weekend
New York Jets @ Cincinnati
The handicap for this match up has undoubtably changed from what it would have been because the Jets hammered Cincinnati in New York last week. That match was effectively meaningless to the Bengals though, and meant everything to the Jets, as defeat would have meant that the Jets were eliminated from the playoffs.. Had this playoff game taken place a week earlier then the Bengals would definately have been favoured by at least the key handicap of 3.5pts and maybe even as high as 4.5pts, as it is the Bengals only have to give up 2.5pts... Less than a field goal.
I like the Jets because they possess the strengths that I like in an American Football side.. That is, a solid offensive line and a good defense. But, I feel rookie QB, Mark Sanchez, has taken this team as far it is going to go this season, because he is still prone to making rookie mistakes. The Bengals, who themselves have a good 'O' line and very capable defense, will not let the Jets run all over them this week (like they did last), in a game that now does mean everything to them. Cincinnati had only given up an average of 88 rush yards/game before giving up 257 in New York at the weekend.. And if the Jets can't run, then the onus will fall on Sanchez to throw the ball, and although showing glimpses of what a good QB he can be in the future, he has more often than not shown he can lose a game as well, especially going against what is a very good Cincinnati secondary.
Take the Bengals to prove that they weren't playing at full throttle last week, and back them -2.5pts at Even money with Boylesports in what should be a low scoring game.
Pick 1: Cincinnati -2.5pts Evs (Boylesports)
Green Bay @ Arizona
My pre season NFC tips head into Arizona for a second consecutive week to face what should be a completely different Cardinal team to the one they trounced in Week 17.. The Packers are one of the form teams heading into the playoffs, having won 7 of their last 8 regular season matches to clinch the no.5 seed in the NFC. Green Bay are the only side in the NFL that rank in the top 6 both offensively and defensively, that statistic is pretty impressive given the Packers early season offensive line woes (gave up 37 sacks in first 8 games, only 14 in the last 8), Green Bay also had to deal with key defensive injuries mid way through the season to DE Aaron Kampman and CB Al Harris. QB, Aaron Rodgers, has matured alot through the season and has shown that he will be a premier QB in this league for a long time to come, as for the defensive injuries they have been admirably covered with some stellar performances, particularly from rookie LB Clay Matthews and veteran CB Charles Woodson.
The Cards, who are a very hit and miss sort of side, will benefit from having QB Kurt Warner take all the snaps after being rested for most of last weeks game.. But to me this Arizona side look vulnerable, especially if you can get pressure on Warner.
Bet365 always offer an extensive range of alternative handicaps, so in an attempt to get the very best price for the Packers I suggest backing them giving up less than a field goal (-2.5pts).
Pick 2: Green Bay -2.5pts 5/4 (Bet365)
1st Touchdown Scorer.
Green Bay's leading TD scorers this season looks like this - Ryan Grant (RB) 11, Donald Driver (WR) 6, Aaron Rodgers (QB) 5, Jermichael Finlay (TE) 5 & James Jones (WR) 5..
With those figures in mind, Aaron Rodgers, looks a bit of value to be the first player to find the end zone.. Rodgers who is 2nd in the teams rushing statistics, having rushed for 316 yards, often finds himself getting flushed out of the pocket due to his offensive lines deficencies. Rodgers, as his statistics reflect, is quite comfortable when this happens and is more than capable of finding the end zone. As I write this, Sky Bet, are the only firm who have priced up this market, and they offer Rodgers at 22/1, that looks a fair price, but I would be surprised when other firms get involved if you don't get a touch better this.
The other player that catches my eye is, TE Jermichael Finlay, who is fast becoming one of Rodgers favourite targets, Finlay is a mis match for most Linebackers and safeties that try to cover him and is a great escape option for Rodgers when he finds himself under pressure. The 12/1 that Sky Bet offer also looks a very fair price.
Pick 3: Aaron Rodgers 22/1, 1pt Jermichael Finlay - 1st Touchdown Scorer (SkyBet)
Baltimore @ New England
Reports from Boston suggest that QB, Tom Brady has been playing injured the last few weeks, rumours are that he is playing with a broken finger.. Ouch!! Knowing this and knowing that he will be without his primary receiver Wes Welker this week, means that you could not back New England with any confidence. Wes Welker's replacement, Julian Edelman looked impressive when called into action last week in Houston. Edelman looked liked Welker, Caught 10 passes rather like Welker and made some impressive yards after his catches again like Welker, but, until he has proven himself in a big game then the Patriots are best left alone.
Baltimore have lost a lot of close games this year, many of which they probably should have won. This includes their Week 4 match in New England, when Baltimore's potential game-winning drive stalled as Mark Clayton dropped a perfect fourth-down pass that would have given the Ravens a first-and-goal. The Ravens have shot themselves in the foot too many times this season to be tipped to win at seasoned campaigners New England. The one thing you can be assured of with the Patriots is that head coach, Bill Belicheck will have his team ready to play. If pressed I would probably just side with the Ravens at 13/8 with Stan James, but ruling out New England -3pts (Coral), could prove costly.
Recommendation - No Bet
Philadelphia @ Dallas
Having done me a favour by stealing the NFC East title from under the noses of Philadelphia last week, and having already beaten the Eagles twice this season then the Dallas Cowboys must surely look a good thing giving up just 3.5 pts at 10/11 with Paddy Power?... Well call it womens intuition.. Or could it be a woman (my wife actually), shouting 'Do you not think you've had enough bets on that bloody stupid sport!'... But there is something telling me not to get involved in this game. The Cowboys thoroughly dominated Philadelphia at the weekend to complete their second shut out in as many weeks.. But.. But for some uncharcteristic dropped passes from the talented bunch of Eagle receivers, and some sloppy play from QB Donovan McNabb, then Philly would surely have been at least competitive in that game. Dallas are definitely in the best form they've been in all season, but it has been proven in the past that defeating the same side three times in one season is far from easy.
This again is a match that I think is priced about right and that could go either way, so for that reason I think it is a match best left alone
Recommendation - No Bet
Posted: Thursday, January 7th, 2010 @ 09:01 am by Big Deal
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