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Divisional Play Offs Preview
Divisional Playoffs
This is my favourite weekend of the year. When the supposed eight best teams in the NFL fight it out to reach next weekends Conference finals. Unfortunately Green Bay aren't one of the teams that made it, after just missing out last week, but I'm not gonna let that spoil my enjoyment.. So here are my thoughts on how this weeks games will pan out, I've added in a couple of 1st touchdown thoughts after going close last week when Aaron Rodgers (25/1), didn't score the 1st touchdown, but did score the first for the Packers.. Here goes..
Baltimore @ Indianapolis
These two sides are the complete opposite of one and other.. Baltimore, famed for their defense, have been losing close games they should have been winning all season.. While Indianapolis' offense has been getting on with business as usual and just getting by in games that they easily could have lost.. This was the case when the two sides met back in week 11 earlier this season, the Colts just coming out on top when they managed to intercept a Joe Flacco pass deep in their own territory when the Ravens were driving down the field to take the lead. It was a game of missed opportunities for Baltimore, illustrated by the fact that they kicked 5 successful (and 1 unsuccessful), field goals in the game, never taking full advantage of their possessions by getting into the endzone. Contrary to this the Ravens still only lost by a scoreline of 17-15.
It is yet to be seen what effect the coach's decisions not to chase a perfect season will have on this Colt team. Manning and his pals certainly looked less than impressed when they were pulled from the game in the 3rd quarter back in week 16 when Indianapolis were leading the Jets and on the verge of going 15 and 0. While Indianapolis' players were enjoying their 3rd week off last week, Baltimore was revelling in one of the greatest victories in franchise history, which must have been a real confidence booster for the side.
Indy certainly seem to have Baltimore's number having beaten the Ravens in 7 straight games, but the 9/4 available about Baltimore (Boylesports), looks far more appealing than Ladbrokes stand out 2/5 about the Colts in what should turn out to be a close, entertaining game.
1st Touchdown.
If you do back the Ravens then you will be hoping Indianapolis' TE Dallas Clark doesn't snatch the first TD, but at Stan James' 9/1, the ever dependable Clark looks good value to do just that.
N.Y Jets @ San Diego
San Diego and their fans would argue that they are the hottest team going into this years playoffs, and they would have a pretty good argument, having won their last 13 regular season games after starting the season 2-3. But I think this Jet team matches up very well against the Chargers. The Chargers rank 31st in the league rushing the football, and as I have pointed out in past, rely heavily on a deep threat passing game. Surely the Jets no.1 defense with the no.1 shut down corner (Darelle Revis) will relish playing against such a one dimensional scheme. Rex Ryan will be confident his team can stop the Chargers ground attack and will then be able to bring a host of blitzs that should at least disrupt San Diego's slow developing, long passing game.
I also expect the Jets running game, with the effective Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene running the ball, to be successful against the Chargers 'D' which has shown a tendency to be weak up the middle.
The 11/4 for New York to win the match (Totesport, Paddy Power & William Hill), looks interesting, but probably the safer play is taking the 7.5 point start at 10/11 with the same firms.
1st Touchdown.
Having had six more carries and gaining 100 more yards than his better known running partner last week against the Bengals, Shonn Greene looks a bit of value at 12/1 (Paddy Power & Stan James), more than double the price of Thomas Jones!
Arizona @ New Orleans
Arizona, like last year, head off to take on the NFC South Champions in their Divisional Playoff match up after being written off by nearly everyone in the Wildcards. There was an unbelievable sustained gamble on the Green Bay Packers to beat the Cards last week that saw Arizona go from being 3pt favourites at the start of the week to 3pt underdogs by the start of the game. Arizona didn't lay down though and showed many of the same fighting qualities that saw them so nearly win the Super Bowl last year.
New Orleans have looked anything but champions in their last six games and look ripe for an upset especially against a team brimming with confidence. This New Orleans offense is good, but I can't see it having as good a day as Green Bay's 'O' last week, so Arizona is definately high scoring enough to live with Saints.
This game looks a cert to be a shoot out, but the total points has been set at a remarkably high 57pts, so this looks best left alone.
Again I think the road underdog look interesting at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes & William Hill), and getting the points (7 points, 10/11 generally)
1st Touchdown.
New Orleans RB, Mike Bell 12/1 (Sky Bet & Stan James) and WR Robert Meachem 16/1 (Sky Bet, Stan James & Bet365), look over priced.. I know I'm picking Saints players after tipping the Cards but in what should be a high scoring game the first TD doesn't bear quite the same significance.
Dallas @ Minnesota
The closest looking match up of the week, I will just be hoping the Vikings can halt what is looking like an ominously good run for the Cowboys (who I had a sizeable bet on last year to win the Super Bowl.. Typical!), as the Vikings are my last hope of winning anything from my long range bets this year.... Go Vikes!!
1st Touchdown.
Minnesota RB Chester Taylor has looked very lively catching the ball out of the backfield, and gets a decent share of carries, so I'll take a chance on him at 16/1 with Sky Bet and Ladbrokes.
Bet Recommendation
Baltimore 11/5
Baltimore +6.5pts 10/11
N.Y Jets 11/4
N.Y Jets +7.5pts 10/11
Arizona 5/2
Arizona +7pts 10/11
8x1pt Trebles William Hill.
Posted: Friday, January 15th, 2010 @ 09:01 am by Big Deal
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