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NFL Conference Championships Preview
Conference Championships
Thank the lord for Sunday!!
After suffering an horrendous Wild Card weekend, where I had gone 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread, the 1 naturally being the smallest bet of the weekend, confidence was quite low for the Divisional round of the play offs. Saturday came and went with my records improving to 1 and 5 SU, and 1 and 5 ATS.. Tremendous!!
After dragging myself to bed at around 4.15am, I woke at around 7am Sunday (Thanks to my daughter), with an empty feeling, not only were all my gambling resources running dry but the play off games themselves were proving remarkably uninspirational..
Thankfully, this is where my newly acquired sensible betting stategies got thrown out the window and I reverted back to the reckless gambler of yester year.. So despite having already backed Minnesota e/w to win the NFC (tipped in week 11), into the Boylesports account I went and placed everything left in it on Minnesota -2.5pts at 10/11, trusting they could further improve on their 8-0 home record and beat Dallas, thus putting all of my proverbial eggs into the same basket... It's not the way I normally go about things and it's not the sort of approach this site would recommend... but hey it worked. So, so be it!!
After that a bet on the Jets at 7/2 on Betfair to beat the Chargers and back in love with American football I had fell.. It's funny how much more enjoyable a dour 34-3 encounter can be when you've money invested on the winner!!
My play off records now stand at 3-5 both SU and ATS, so I ONLY have to correctly predict the winners of this weeks games and then the winner of the Super Bowl to finish with a positive record... Easy!! Here Goes...
N.Y Jets @ Indianapolis
This game leaves me with some what of a dilemna. Firstly, I hate Peyton Manning. Secondly, In week 16 when these two sides met the Colts pulled their starters in the second half of the match effectively ending the chances of the Houston Texans, otherwise it could of been the Texans in this Conference Final with myself sitting with a nice e/w Ante Post slip for Houston to win the Super Bowl. Thirdly, and probably most importantly, I have being saying to my colleagues in work all year how I don't think either of the perfection seeking sides (Indianapolis & New Orleans), will win the Super Bowl. And considering I'm an odds compiler for an Independent bookmakers in Northern Ireland and am responsible for compiling our American Football prices then this is not great. To be honest I thought the Ravens would of disposed of Manning and Co. last week, but they didn't. So all of that leaves me with the dilemna of, I would like to see the Jets win this game but I can't see it happening, and being the punter that I am it's case of having a financial interest in the Colts at -7.5pts (William Hill, Paddy Power, Bet365 to name a few), and cheering on Peyton and the boys.
Last week I highlighted how I thought the Jets matched up quite well against the Chargers, well this week I feel quite the opposite applies.. Indy QB, Peyton Manning is a master of spotting blitzes and gets rid of the ball so quickly that he is likely to negate the strength of this New York side. The Jets 'D' will probably have some amount of success in Indy but I can't see them completely shutting down Indianapolis' offensive and the Colts are unlikely to need to put many points on the board to win this game.
The Colts 'D', which is far from being one of the best defenses in the league, match up well with the way the Jets play offense. The Colts will drop into a zone and use their speed to close down the run and short passing game safe in the knowledge that they will not have defend any deep threat. Remember that when these two sides met back in Week 16 the Jets only scored one offensive TD and that was against a depleted Indianapolis defense. All in all, I thinks the Colts, a best priced 3/10 with Boylesports, will run out comfortable winners and end the Jets gutsy play off run. (Predicted scoreline 27-10)
Recommendation - 6pts Indianapolis -7.5pts (generally available)
1st Touchdown Scorer
With Manning's primary receiver, Reggie Wayne likely to have his hands full with CB Darelle Revis, it makes sense to look elsewhere for the first TD scorer. Last weekend San Diego TE Antonio Gates had a big day against this Jets defense catching 8 balls for 93 yards and it would be of no surprise to see Indianapolis' own TE be the one to have a big day this week. That man is Dallas Clark, and he looks very backable at 10/1 with Stan James. The other player who I feel worthy of a mention is rookie receiver Austin Collie, 12/1 with Bet365, Collie had 6 catches for 94 yards in Indianapolis' first game with the Jets.
Recommendation - 1pt Dallas Clark 10/1 (Stan James)
Minnesota @ New Orleans
So if I think that Indy are gonna make it to the Super Bowl in the AFC, the question is now, are Minnesota good enough to win in New Orleans?.. To help me save face and avoid the nightmare scenario of having the two teams that I have been preaching won't win the 'Bowl squaring up against each other come February the 7th.
Well I think so.. The Vikings are a team that I have been short about all season, I feel they are the most balanced side in the league. Offensively, Favre (who I also hate!), has been hard to knock all year and has undoubtably brought the best out of what was thought to be a quite limited receiving corps. Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe are having very productive years and rookie receiver Percy Harvin is electric when he gets hold of the rock. The rushing game has not seemed as effective this year, but Adrian Peterson has still managed to rush for 1383 yards throughout the season even though he has seen far less of the ball with the improved passing attack. On the ground Chester Taylor offers a very threatening alternative to AP and he is always hard to stop catching the ball out of the backfield especially in third down situations.
Defensively the Vikings short comings in their secondary are masked by the pressure the very impressive front four manage to get on the opposing QB (Minnesota led the league with 47 sacks through the season). The same front four are even more effective stopping the run, ranking no. 2 in the league.
New Orleans are a good side that are very well coached by Sean Peyton. They were absolutely outstanding when they defeated the Patriots in the Monday Night game back in Week 12, but that game aside they have made alot of average sides look exactly what they are... Average.
For me, the key to this game is can the Minnesota 'D' get the three or four key stops throughout the game against New Orleans' high powered offense. And I think yes they can, New Orleans will find it difficult to run the ball which will allow Jerrod Allen and Kevin and Pat Williams to concentrate on collapsing the pocket around Drew Brees.
I'm not gonna get involved in this game myself as I already have half a dozen eggs in the basket, but I feel Minnesota look very reasonably priced at 17/10 (Boylesports & Ladbrokes) and I'll take the Vikes to win by a scoreline of 31-24.
1st Minnesota Touchdown Scorer
Paddy Power, SkyBet, Ladbrokes and Totesport all offer prices for individual team 1st touchdown scorers, and they are worth looking at because sometimes it is possible to dig out a bit of value. Adrian Peterson is generally available at a favourites price of 9/2 to score the games first TD, but Paddy Power offer him at 13/5 (slightly better than the expected half the price of 9/4), for him to score Minnesota's first TD. There are several reasons for thinking this is a good price. Firstly, New Orleans are favourites to win the game so therefore would be favourites to score the games first TD, basic math would suggest he should be less than half the price of the 9/2 available probably nearer a 2/1 shot. Secondly, Peterson accounted for 18 of the Vikings 56 TD's this season, approximately a third, again suggesting he would be around a 2/1 shot.. But forgetting all the statistics, thirdly, Minnesota are going to want to pound the running game against the Saints weak Run 'D'. Running the ball will help negate the noise in the stadium and more importantly will keep Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense off the field. As a saver back Minnesota's other back, Chester Taylor at a generous looking 12/1 with Ladbrokes.
Recommendation - 5pts A.Peterson 13/5 (Paddy Power)
1pt C.Taylor 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
P.s Anybody residing in, or visiting Northern Ireland please call into any McLeans Bookmakers (around 60 shops across the province), and pick up one our NFL coupons that are available each week. If you disagree with anything that I write in this column, and going off the past two weeks you probably should!.. You can be assured of getting some pretty favourable prices on the other teams!
Posted: Friday, January 22nd, 2010 @ 10:01 am by Big Deal
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