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Super Bowl XLIV Preview
Super Bowl XLIV
Indianapolis v New Orleans
Although this years Super Bowl will be hyped as one of the most exciting to ever take place between two offensive juggernauts.. It doesn't really float my boat! For me, games are far more enjoyable when a great offense is pitted against some great defensive talent. If you want to watch a game where teams march up and down the field and take turns in scoring, then go and watch some basketball.
That being said, I still love this sport and I'm sure I will not be complaining should I wake up on Monday morning having watched a 41-38 OT thriller and won a bit of money along the way..
So here's what I think of the markets available for this years big show.
Match Betting
It seems a little bit surprising to me, that going into the Championship round of the playoffs, New Orleans were generally a best priced 2/1 to win the Super Bowl. And after beating a very good Minnesota side, albeit unconvincingly, you can still get 37/20 (1.85/1 Boylesports & Bet365), for the Saints. Now their opponents in the Super Bowl final, the Indianapolis Colts, did look quite good in the final 32 minutes of their Championship match up, but they certainly did not have things all their own way against the New York Jets. When you think that going into that Championship weekend, the Jets were considered weaker opposition for the Colts than the Vikings were for the Saints, then such a marginal shortening of New Orleans' Super Bowl price is slightly bemusing.
Even stranger than that, is the handicap for this match.. For every game I have ever known, if a team are priced at 1/2 to win the match, then this corresponds to that team being 3.5pt favourites for the handicap at 10/11.. Well for some reason in this match that is not the case. SkyBet offer Indianapolis at 1/2 to win the match, meaning their handicap should be the afformentioned -3.5 at 10/11. Most other firms bet Indy around the 4/9 mark, suggesting their handicap should be -4.5, 10/11.. But for some reason in this game all firms are quoting the handicap at -5.5pts, 10/11 (slightly better odds of 20/21 Betfred). The one exception to this, is Totesports odds compiler, who has stuck by his guns and offered 4/9 for the match and -4.5pts on the handicap, though still being forced to only offer that 4.5pt spread at the worse price of 5/6.. The only explanation for this is that the weight of money in Vegas has been for Indy to cover the handicap and our compilers have followed their lead.
So as you've probably already guessed by now, I feel all the value lies with New Orlean in this game.. But do I think they can win??
Well yes I do. I think the Saints match up quite well against Indianapolis. The Colts defense, which has played very well during this post season, has played against two offenses so far that suit them down to the ground. The Indy 'D' is at its best when everything is played in front of their safeties, they use their speed well to close down plays and make tackles before a first down is made. The 'D' is not so good against teams that challenge them deep down the field, and this New Orleans side will certainly do that. I don't think New Orleans' own defense will have much success in stopping Peyton Manning and his troops either, so this game could come down to turnovers (this years turnover ratios - New Orleans +17, Indy +5), or who has the ball last.
In a game that promises to be close New Orleans look a big price and the points look invaluable.
Recommendations:
New Orleans +5.5pts, 20/21 (Betfred & Bet365)
New Orleans 37/20 (Bet365, Boylesports & SportingBet)
Total Points
Everything points to this game being a shoot out, so unless the coaches try and get smart and use ball control to keep the opposing offenses off the field (which would probably have a detrimental effect on their chances of winning the game). Then I'm gonna go against what Vegas calls the 'shrewd' under players, and go with the obvious that there will be points.. And lots of them!
Recommendation:
Over 55.5pts 10/11 (Totesport)
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
This is one of the most popular markets for the Super Bowl. With 22 QB's picking up the award in the previous 43 Super Bowls, this means it is a shade of odds on that a QB collects the accolade. So if you consider Manning is generally 4/9 to win the Super Bowl with the Colts, and history suggests he would then be 10/11 to be named MVP, so double up those prices and you find that Peyton should be around the 7/4 mark to be the Super Bowl MVP. Using the same logic for Drew Brees, then his price should be around 4/1 (7/4x10/11). The actual best prices for the two QB's are, Peyton Manning 10/11 (Bet365), and Drew Brees 3/1 (Bet365). So it would probably pay to look elsewhere for the winner of this market. Manning is particular bad value as he won the the MVP in Super Bowl XLI, so I think he would have to post some huge numbers to collect again.
Three of the last five recipients have been Wideouts, so it makes sense to look there, especially as this game is expected to be a high scoring one. If any receiver could say catch 10 balls, for say 140yds and a couple of TD's then they would be highly likely to win the MVP. Reggie Wayne 14/1 (Totesport & Boylesports), and Dallas Clark (TE) 16/1 (Boylesports) are Mannings favourite targets and even though they were kept quiet by the Jets last week, expect them to make some noise this week. For New Orleans, Reggie Bush (RB) 18/1 (Boylesports), is a pin up boy of the league and would be a popular choice should he have a big game and maybe return a kick for a TD. Drew Brees spreads the ball out so much between his receivers it's tough to pinpoint one, but I like Devery Henderson who catches alot of deep balls and at 40/1 with Boylesports he looks tempting.
Recommendation:
Lay P.Manning at 11/10 or shorter Betfair.
Hidden Gems
There are hundreds of special bets to have on the Super Bowl (Ladbrokes have the best variety that I've seen), some of which are complete dross like 'Who will score 1st in the second quarter' or 'Total Points Odd or Even' etc etc.. But if you sift through them there are a couple markets that might catch your eye.
Here are the ones that caught my eye..
Jeremy Shockey to have no receptions 5/1 (Ladbrokes) - Shockey only had one reception against Minnesota in the Championship game and is quite clearly playing injured.
Dallas Clark to make Indianapolis' 1st reception 9/2 (Ladbrokes) - Clark is only 5/1 to get the 1st reception of the game (also with Ladbrokes), strange bit of pricing to only be half a point shorter with all New Orleans receivers out of the equation.
4/11 That the games points total is higher than the longest field goal yardage (Ladbrokes) - These two defenses are unlikely to get too many stops that will result in a field goal try, that along with the fact that it's unlikely that anybody is going to kick a 90 yard FG, make this a short price, but a decent wager.
Donald Brown 5/6 to gain more than 20.5 yds rushing (Ladbrokes) - The Colts 1st round draft pick carried the ball 6 times versus the Jets in the Championship game, if he gets that number of carries this week then you would fancy him to pick up 21 yards against the New Orleans rush defence.
Reggie Wayne most receiving yards 9/2 (Totesport) - Wayne led all these receivers with 1264 yards throughout the regular season and is Mannings favourite, most reliable target. The fact that Drew Brees evenly distributes his passes between his receiving corps makes this bet interesting.
Posted: Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010 @ 00:02 am by Big Deal
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