BigTips Betting News
NFL Season Preview
NFL Preview 2010 – by Dan Robinson
Well, yet another sporting summer of dull predictability for the punter is coming to an overdue end. Favourites such as Chelsea in the Premiership, Barcelona in La Liga, Inter in Serie A, Spain in the World Cup, Nadal at Wimbledon, Williams (can’t remember which one, does it really matter?) at Wimbledon (I could go on), all managed to romp to victory, surprise, surprise. Zzzzzzzzz!
Although most people will dread the change in seasons, from summer to winter, at least for punters it brings with it one solitary ray of light to brighten up those murky evenings – the return of the NFL. Finally, a sport that has mastered parity and provides a pretty level playing field for its runners and riders is here. Last year saw the 25-1 Saints lift the Lombardi trophy. The NFL provides great value for its backers if you know where to look. Look no further…
Division Bets:
NFC East:
Best odds: Cowboys 7-5, Eagles 14-5, Giants 10-3, Redskins 6-1
The Cowboys are a lot of people’s picks to ride off into the sunset with this division, and maybe even the Superbowl. But people have been saying this for a number of years now, and their backers know all too well that they have promised so much, yet delivered so little. They did manage to win the division last year (only just), but that was over injury riddled Eagles and Giants squads. The Cowboys managed to avoid key injuries last year, it’s unlikely they will dodge the bullet (or the arrow) as well this year.
In contrast, the Giants and Eagles are both set to profit from key players returning from injury this season. The Giants were undefeated last year until they lost key safety Kenny Phillips in week 5 and could not replace his productivity. It was a similar story for the Eagles, with their linebackers in a state of flux all season after key man Stuart Bradley went down. Look for the Eagles and Giants (and maybe the Redskins too) to bounce back with stronger performances this year. It may not be enough to shoot down the Cowboys, but don’t bet against it.
Verdict: No bet. Not enough value in a Cowboys bet. Saddle up your horse and get out of Dodge – Yee hah!
NFC North:
Best odds: Packers 5-4 Vikings 15-8 Bears 9-2 Lions 20-1
Like the Northern division in the AFC, I see a three horse race that is worth staying clear of financially. Like the Browns in the AFC, we know the Lions are destined for the basement. Who will actually be left standing at the end of the season looks a much tougher call.
Da Bears should be much improved with the acquisitions of Peppers (from the Panthers), Ulracher (back from injury) and Martz (directing the O). If the latter can get the best out of QB Cutler, the Bears will be much improved and right in the mix.
The Packers are a lot of people’s picks for the Superbowl from the NFC. If they can protect Aaron Rogers better, their O will be tough to stop. Also a second season in Dom Caper’s 3-4 D scheme should lead to increased productivity there too.
Finally, we have the Vikings to consider. This team had a Superbowl visit in the bag last year, until bad clock management (Childress) and a bad throw (guess who?) let it slip. If they can keep Favre healthy, they may well take that last step this season.
Verdict: Danger – keep out! Betting here is bad for your health (and your wallet). No bet.
NFC South:
Best odds: Saints 4-6, Falcons 9-4 Panthers 8-1 Bucs 28-1
It’s not fantastically exciting, advising a string of no bets in a season preview, but look out, here comes one more! Only fighting the battles you are confident of winning is a key component of sound gambling. Here is another division where it is advisable to send your troops in to battle elsewhere (if only Bush and Blair had adapted this policy hey).
The Saints are Superbowl champs and their status as favourites is clearly justified. However, how a notoriously flaky franchise handles their success remains to be seen and should be considered a big worry in my opinion. The Falcons pose a real threat if arrogance and complacency sneaks into the Saints’ campaign. The Falcons have a strong O, and a young / promising D. I wouldn’t bet on them to topple the Saints, but I wouldn’t bet against it either. The Panthers are a dangerous team, and 8-1 is a good price, but not quite good enough to merit a fiscal investment.
Verdict: The only certainty here is that the Bucs aren’t winning anything anytime soon. Predicting who will win the division, with cash, is not advisable. No bet.
NFC West
Best odds: 49ers 11-10, Cards 13-5, Hawks 10-3, Rams 20-1
A division we can bet on – woo hoo! The 49ers are this year’s trendy pick in many parts of the media, and as a result the bookies have installed them as favourites for the division. There is some justification for this, as coach Singletary has installed discipline and hunger in the squad. Also, the reigning champ Cardinals look to have regressed, having lost some key players (Warner, Boldin, Dansby, Rolle amongst others).
So does an improvement in San Fran, coupled with a down grading in Arizona, equal a 49ers division win? In my opinion - no. It should be tight, with the Seahawks possibly pushing too, but I like the Cards, especially at 13-5. The 49ers will be counting on rookies and other young players to make a big impact, whereas the Cards (winners of the division the last 2 years) will benefit from experience and established stars who have been there and done that already. Yes, good players have left the desert, but good ones have come in and good ones remain too. In my opinion, 11-10 to 6-4 would be a fair price on the Cards. 13-5 is great value and should e snapped up
Verdict: It will be tight, but 13-5 on the Cardinals is a price not to miss out on.
AFC East:
Best odds: Patriots 11-8 Jets 6-4 Dolphins 7-2 Bills 28-1
The Bills have a decent D, but a mediocre O (at best) and will likely fill the basement slot here. The Dolphins have been tipped up in some circles, but I’m not convinced. They are an efficient, well coached, tenacious team, but a lack of star quality should see them come up short.
That leaves a battle for the top between the Patriots and the Jets. The Pats are the established team, winning the division consistently since their recent dynasty began with their Superbowl win in 2001. There have been signs of age and injury creeping in, in recent years though, with key players Brady, Moss and Welker struggling with health and form.
In contrast, the Jets are young and coming into their prime. They are led by second year coach (Ryan) QB (Sanchez) and RB (Greene) and appear to be getting better (not worse, like their rival Patriots).
Verdict: You can never rule out a Brady / Bellicek led Patriots squad, but odds of 6-4 on the Jets, in effectively a two horse race, represents good value to me.
AFC North:
Best odds: Ravens 11-10, Steelers 5-2, Bengals 7-2, Browns 20-1
This is going to be a tough division to predict with any degree of confidence. What do we know? Cleveland is going to finish bottom. What don’t we know? Which one of the other three will finish top.
The Ravens start off as favourites, and I can see why. Young stars like Flacco and Rice should be even better with another year under their belts, and adding Boldin and a sound draft helps too. But with key defender Ed Reed fighting a lingering hip problem and the competition within the division being so strong, odds of even money doesn’t represent good value to me.
The Steelers will miss talisman (not tail man – bad joke) Rothilsberger for at least the first four games due to allegations of rape, and have also lost key players Holmes (traded to the Jets) and Colon (placed on injured reserve). They do however play at their best with their backs to the wall (they won the Superbowl two years ago after playing the hardest schedule in the league) and will likely put up a game fight.
If I was going to bet here, it would be on the Bengals. Their D is excellent, and should get even better this season under the guidance of top coach Ray Sherman. They can run the ball effectively, and if Carson Palmer can return to the form of his early career (and survive the antics of ego-maniacs TO and Ochocinco), they will be a tough out for anyone.
Verdict: Too tough to predict with any degree of confidence, no bet.
AFC South:
Best odds: Colts 8-13 Titans 4-1 Texans 9-2 Jags 14-1
I’m surprised that odds as generous as 17-25 are available on the Colts here. The Colts have more regular season wins than any other team over the last 10 years, and last year’s Superbowl appearance is a clear sign that they aren’t losing their mojo. They were close to an undefeated season last year, with the only team able to beat them in the regular season being…themselves (they rested their stars for the second half against the Jets, losing their lead, the game, and their chance at a perfect season). Their loss in the Superbowl should only serve to keep them hungry for success, and getting elite players back like Bob Sanders and Anthony Gonzalez can only help.
The other three teams in this section are somewhere in between average and decent. That will not cut it versus the Colts. All three teams can score points, but each have D’s that are very exploitable. The Colts D is much stronger, as is their O too in all fairness, and for those reason, I’ll be splashing the cash.
Verdict: Get your mortgage and your Nan’s pension on the Colts, it’s as certain as night following day.
AFC West
Best odds: Chargers 2-5 Broncos 7-1 Raiders 8-1 Chiefs 10-1
The Raiders and Chiefs may well have improved and could close the gap on their rivals, but not to the extent you’d want to part with any of your hard earned cash. The Chargers are the flat track bully here, winning the division in each of the last four years. They are not always at their best during the regular season, especially early on, but always seem to do just enough to come out winners. I do, however, have a small feeling that this year could be different.
There always seems to be a shock or two in the NFL division markets, and the Chargers falling from grace could well be this year’s surprise. Key players have expressed disquiet with their contracts, and could well either hold out of games, or play disgruntled, creating chemistry issues. Their head coach doesn’t have the best reputation for discipline and authority, and for these reasons I could see the Chargers’ campaign imploding.
Couple this with a likely improvement in Denver, and a good value bet could be a sensible approach. Coach McDaniels has finally rid himself of talented, but troublesome stars (Cutler and Marshall) and his squad should respond well to the lack of distractions. The Broncos have talent on both sides of the ball, and will be right there waiting to take advantage if the Chargers slip up.
Verdict: Leave your Nan’s pension book in the top draw, and forget about risking the mortgage too, but a small bet on the Broncos (perhaps looking to win back the stakes from your other bigger bets) could be a sensible insurance policy to take out.
Bet recommendations:
Cards to win the NFC West, 13-5 @ Various, 2pts
Jets to win the AFC East, 6-4 @ Various, 1pt
Colts to win the AFC South, 8-13 Various, 5pts
Broncos to win the AFC West, 7-1 StanJames, 0.5 pts
Multiple bet: treble – Cards, Colts, Jets, 0.5 pts
Superbowl bets:
A sensible staking strategy to employ in this market is to two teams from each conference, both e/w. You never know, it may be your lucky year and they will end up playing each other in a cash cow of a Superbowl. Here’s my utterly butterly tips..
NFC:
I like the Falcons in this section. 33-1 is a good price on an underrated and emerging team. My main money will be going on the Vikings however. I just have a feeling that the old gun slinger Brett Favre will ride off into the sunset with a Superbowl appearance, in Texas of all places. Favre will turn 41 and be playing in his 20th season. Remarkably he has never missed a game. If he can continue that streak and stay healthy for the whole campaign, he and the Vikings stand a great chance.
Their biggest strength is, quite literally, their strength. Massive lines on both sides of the ball, help them dominate in the trenches, the place all games are traditionally won and lost. They have a top three RB (A P), great young WR’s (Harvin and Rice, although the latter will be out til mid-season recovering from a hip-op) and a physical and imposing D. Favre is the icing on the cake. If he stays healthy, the whole mix tastes of success. If he gets injured, it may create a sour, sickly feeling in the mouths of their backers. Over 200 games without missing a start offers hope!
AFC:
I like the Jets’ odds and chances and they are well worth a smaller bet at 16-1, but I can’t see past the favourite Colts here. If they avoid injuries to key players, they should win it all.
They face a comparatively weak division and should progress to the playoffs and a first round bye with comparative ease. With Payton Manning directing the O, they are going to put up plenty of points on any opponent. The underrated D will only get better with the return of Bob Sanders and adding some good draft picks. They came within a whisker of a perfect season last year. Look for the frustration of coming so close to be the fuel that will fire an even stronger performance this year.
Bet recommendations:
Vikings to win the Superbowl, e/w, 16-1 @ Various – 1pt
Falcons to win the Superbowl, e/w, 33-1 @ Various – 0.5 pts
Colts to win the Superbowl, e/w, 9-1 @ Bet365 or Boylesports – 2pts
Jets to win the Superbowl, e/w, 14-1 Various – 0.5 pts
Posted: Friday, September 3rd, 2010 @ 09:09 am by Sonny D
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